Get vaccinated: Vaccines does more good than harm
Summary of the benefit and harm of vaccination:
- 6-month risk of Covid-19 in an unvaccinated population = 1.1%
- 6-month risk of Covid-19 in a vaccinated population = 0.1%
- Number of Covid-19 cases prevented in 6 months = 336,332 cases
- Number of additional unusual blood clots = 198 cases
This analysis aims to present the 6-month benefit and harms of the vaccine based on current evidence. In a population that is fully vaccinated, we should expect the cumulative cases for a 6-month period to drop from the current estimated 368,000 to 31,668 new cases a day for the first 6 months after everyone is vaccinated. In terms of absolute risk, the risk of getting Covid-19 in the 6-month period will reduce from 1.1% (11,152 per 1,000,000 population) to 0.1% (966 per 1,000,000 population).
This scenario assumes a current daily reported case of 2000 per day as a baseline prior to vaccination, a population at risk of 33,000,000 and a 6-month efficacy of 91.3%. The actual average cases per day over the 6 months (22/10/2020 to 21/02/2021) was 358,833 cases but was rounded up to 364,000 for easier interpretation as 2,000 cases per day may be easier to comprehend compared to 1,972 cases per day.
This analysis is based on an article that appeared in The Star on 22 April 2021 by Prof Dr Sanjay Rampal, Professor of Epidemiology and Public Health Medicine Specialist, University of Malaya.
Analysis based on data compiled for COVID-19 Epidemiology for Malaysia Dashboard.
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