Mathematical Modelling in Tuberculosis Transmission and Impact on Early intervention (Chemoprophylaxis) in Malaysia
Investigators: Dr. Nurhuda Ismail
  Prof Dr Awang Bulgiba Awang Mahmud
  Prof Dr Nicolaas J.D. Nagelkerke
Agency: University of Malaya
Amount: RM 10,100
Grant: UM Postgraduate Research Fund
Period: June 2009 - May 2011
Reference number: PS386/2009B

Epidemic modelling generates estimates and projections of disease morbidity and mortality over time. This project aims to apply the use of deterministic mathematical models to study the progression of latent tuberculosis infection in high risk sub-populations in Malaysia, and to assess the impact of chemoprophylaxis i.e. Isoniazid Preventive Therapy on reducing incidence. It is hoped that the result will demonstrate that treatment of infectives is more effective in the first years of implementation as treatment results in clearing active tuberculosis immediately and there after chemoprophylaxis will do better in controlling the number of infectives due to reduced progression to active tuberculosis. The model also suggests that this recommended chemoprophylaxis which identify and treat persons recently infected may have a substantial effect on controlling tuberculosis epidemics.

The project is funding research by one DrPH candidate (Dr. Nurhuda Ismail), currently is being written up. The completion of the project should result in 2 journal papers, 2 conference papers and 1 DrPH thesis. In 2010 the project resulted in a workshop (Workshop on Infectious Disease Modelling and Its Applications 22-25 Mar 2010) coordinated by Dr Nurhuda Ismail.


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