Comparison of the Framingham Risk Score, SCORE and WHO/ISH cardiovascular risk prediction models in an Asian population

Int J Cardiol 2014; 176: 211-8

Author

Selvarajah S, Kaur G, Haniff J, Cheong KC, Hiong TG, van der Graaf YBots ML

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk-prediction models are used in clinical practice to identify and treat high-risk populations, and to communicate risk effectively. We assessed the validity and utility of four cardiovascular risk-prediction models in an Asian population of a middle-income country. METHODS: Data from a national population-based survey of 14,863 participants aged 40 to 65 years, with a follow-up duration of 73,277 person-years was used. The Framingham Risk Score (FRS), SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation)-high and -low cardiovascular-risk regions and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) models were assessed. The outcome of interest was 5-year cardiovascular mortality. Discrimination was assessed for all models and calibration for the SCORE models. RESULTS: Cardiovascular risk factors were highly prevalent; smoking 20%, obesity 32%, hypertension 55%, diabetes mellitus 18% and hypercholesterolemia 34%. The FRS and SCORE models showed good agreement in risk stratification. The FRS, SCORE-high and -low models showed good discrimination for cardiovascular mortality, areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were 0.768, 0.774 and 0.775 respectively. The WHO/ISH model showed poor discrimination, AUC=0.613. Calibration of the SCORE-high model was graphically and statistically acceptable for men (chi(2) goodness-of-fit, p=0.097). The SCORE-low model was statistically acceptable for men (chi(2) goodness-of-fit, p=0.067). Both SCORE-models underestimated risk in women (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The FRS and SCORE-high models, but not the WHO/ISH model can be used to identify high cardiovascular risk in the Malaysian population. The SCORE-high model predicts risk accurately in men but underestimated it in women.


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